The Welsh Government has published a further explanation of the financial consequences of the UK Autumn Budget, challenging claims that its funding will not fall in real terms next year.

The Government says its resource block grant will increase by £146 million, or 0.6%, in cash terms in 2027–28. With forecast inflation of 2.1%, this equates to a 1.5% reduction in purchasing power.

When devolved taxes and business rates are included, the wider resource budget rises by approximately £400 million in cash terms but still falls by 0.5% in real terms.

Why it matters: A cash increase does not necessarily allow public services to purchase more goods, employ more staff or meet rising demand. The distinction is important for the NHS, councils, schools and other publicly funded services.

Status: Published Welsh Government fiscal analysis, not a new funding decision. The UK Government emphasises additional funding provided through the Budget; the Welsh Government is comparing purchasing power between financial years. Both measures need to be distinguished.