The Institute for Fiscal Studies has criticised the Welsh Government’s plans to postpone council tax revaluation from April 2028 to 2032, arguing that the delay would prolong inequalities between households.
Finance Minister Elin Jones announced the proposed postponement on 20 October, following an assessment of its financial implications. Ministers intend to bring forward legislation in November. The change still requires Senedd approval: without it, the scheduled 2028 revaluation remains in place. The Local Government Finance (Wales) Act 2024 established revaluations from 2028, followed by a five-year cycle.
The Welsh Government estimates that revaluation could move around a quarter of households into a higher council tax band and another quarter into a lower band, with around half seeing little change. Some households facing increases could pay hundreds of pounds more annually.
Ministers say transitional support to cushion those increases could cost up to £80 million in the first year. This is the estimated cost of household support, rather than simply the administrative cost of updating valuations. Jones argued that funding it would compete with priorities including NHS waiting lists, childcare and education.
The government acknowledges that the existing system is unfair but says it will explore more targeted, less costly improvements during the postponement.
The IFS response, published on 21 October, highlights how differently average property values have changed across Wales since the 2003 valuation date underpinning current bands:
| Area | Average property value growth since 2003, as cited by IFS |
|---|---|
| Blaenau Gwent | Over 300% |
| Cardiff, Flintshire and Wrexham | Under 150% |
The institute argues that homes worth similar amounts today can consequently face substantially different bills.
It also challenges the government’s funding argument. A revenue-neutral transitional arrangement could phase in both increases and reductions, using the gradual introduction of savings for some households to fund protection for others. Those due lower bills would still benefit, but would receive the full reduction over time.
The IFS warns that postponement could make eventual adjustment harder as valuations become increasingly outdated.
Why it matters: The central question is how council tax is distributed between households. Ministers emphasise protecting people facing increases and preserving public-service budgets; the IFS argues that delaying revaluation also delays relief for households paying disproportionately high bills relative to their homes’ present values.
